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Goth Explorer

Population growth since the time of Noah

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Roughly 4400 years ago, the world had a population of eight.  There was a flood, and only eight people survived.

 

This post does not seek to address all of the many issues surrounding this, but instead to consider merely the population growth since then.

 

The world had a breeding population of six people 4400 years ago.  How do we get from there to the current world population estimated at 7.7bn?

 

If my arithmetic is correct, then it would require population growth of 0.44 percent per year - a very low figure.  To give it some context, the population of England and Wales grew from 16m to 18m in the ten years from 1841 to 1851.  I make that an annual population growth of 1.2 percent.

 

By contrast, if the breeding population of the world 4400 years ago was higher than six, then a much lower rate of population increase would be needed.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Goth Explorer said:

Roughly 4400 years ago, the world had a population of eight.  There was a flood, and only eight people survived.

 

This post does not seek to address all of the many issues surrounding this, but instead to consider merely the population growth since then.

 

The world had a breeding population of six people 4400 years ago.  How do we get from there to the current world population estimated at 7.7bn?

 

If my arithmetic is correct, then it would require population growth of 0.44 percent per year - a very low figure.  To give it some context, the population of England and Wales grew from 16m to 18m in the ten years from 1841 to 1851.  I make that an annual population growth of 1.2 percent.

 

By contrast, if the breeding population of the world 4400 years ago was higher than six, then a much lower rate of population increase would be needed.

 

 

Just curious, how would anyone factor in the death rate especially during centuries of wars which took the lives of millions at times? Not to mention there were plagues etc. While I'd think that one could create an avg based on current population and working backwards under the assumption that the earth is 4400 years I think it proves nothing other than to give an average growth rate which may be presented as reasonable.

 

Thought you may also be interested in this video. Pendleton briefly addresses the population and some implications if the planet and man were around for millions of years.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, William said:

Just curious, how would anyone factor in the death rate especially during centuries of wars which took the lives of millions at times? Not to mention there were plagues etc. While I'd think that one could create an avg based on current population and working backwards under the assumption that the earth is 4400 years I think it proves nothing other than to give an average growth rate which may be presented as reasonable.

 

I'm not sure what point you are making here.  So far as I am aware, the twentieth century is the only century in history in which wars claimed millions of lives.  Even the ACW was only about 800k.  And yet populations grew during the twentieth century.

 

As for plagues, yes disease can devastate populations, but this happens rarely.  In fact I can think of only two centuries - most recently the fourteenth - in which disease has set population growth into reverse gear.

 

Europe lost a third of its population in a few years mid14C, and yet London was a larger city 200 years later.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Goth Explorer said:

I'm not sure what point you are making here.  So far as I am aware, the twentieth century is the only century in history in which wars claimed millions of lives.  Even the ACW was only about 800k.  And yet populations grew during the twentieth century.

 

As for plagues, yes disease can devastate populations, but this happens rarely.  In fact I can think of only two centuries - most recently the fourteenth - in which disease has set population growth into reverse gear.

 

Europe lost a third of its population in a few years mid14C, and yet London was a larger city 200 years later.

 

 

My point being is that calculating the current population and deriving at a growth rate since after the flood only demonstrates that a reasonable growth rate may lead to the current population. However, nothing has been factored in such as mass scale dying or even booms in population.

 

Now, figure out the same population if x amount of people were existing at the end of a theoretical ice age. However, long ago, what is the average growth rate to come to today's population?

 

For example, if 8 people existed at the end of an ice age some 100 thousand years ago and there are 7 billion today what would be the avg growth rate?

 

Now going back to your growth rate of a 4400 year span which is more probable or reasonable?

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19 hours ago, William said:

My point being is that calculating the current population and deriving at a growth rate since after the flood only demonstrates that a reasonable growth rate may lead to the current population. However, nothing has been factored in such as mass scale dying or even booms in population.

 

Now, figure out the same population if x amount of people were existing at the end of a theoretical ice age. However, long ago, what is the average growth rate to come to today's population?

 

For example, if 8 people existed at the end of an ice age some 100 thousand years ago and there are 7 billion today what would be the avg growth rate?

 

Now going back to your growth rate of a 4400 year span which is more probable or reasonable?

I am still not clear what your point is.

 

Taking the Biblical account of a global flood 4400 years ago requires us to believe in an average population growth rate of less than half a percent per year since then.  I am not sure that it is necessary to factor in one-off events, because they would probably not detract greatly from the overall picture.

 

What evidence do you have for population growth in any era prior to the twentieth century?  I have supplied the evidence of 1.2 percent for a ten-year period in the nineteenth century.  This is not speculation.  It is based on two censuses taken in 1841 and 1851.

 

What evidence do you have for major population decreases?  Can you name one war before the year 1900 which claimed as many as a million lives?  How many times in human history have world population levels fallen significantly owing to either war or disease?

 

I am offering evidence to the extent that I am aware of it.  You seem to be offering speculation.  If the world population had been significantly higher than eight people 4400 years ago, then we would have to assume an average population growth of around nought percent per year since then.  How likely is that?

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